POLITICS

Full List of States Tinubu Must Win to Emerge Nigeria’s President in 2023 and His Possible Chances

With about 177 days to the 2023 presidential election, a report by Thisday newspaper has analysed the chances of the top three candidates: Bola Tinubu of the APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

The report noted that the current standing of the major presidential candidates and their parties, based on public opinion assessment, is still too close to call, even though campaigns are yet to officially begin.

Tinubu/Shettima/APC Presidential Candidate/2023 Elections
A report has shown states where Tinubu needs to win to emerge as Nigeria’s president in 2023. Photo credit: Kashim Shettima

Nevertheless, the report listed states where Tinubu and others must secure 60% and 40% wins to emerge president in 2023.

Tinubu’s pathway to Aso Rock: States he must win

States Tinubu Must Win Over 60% Comment (prediction)
1 Lagos Likely
2 Ogun Likely
3 Ondo Likely
4 Oyo Possible
5 Osun Possible
6 Ekiti Likely
7 Kano Possible
8 Kaduna Possible
9 Katsina Possible
10 Zamfara Likely
11 Borno Likely
12 Yobe Likely

Tinubu’s pathway to Aso Rock: States he must win over 40%

States Tinubu Must Win Over 40% Comment (prediction)
1 Sokoto Likely
2 Kebbi Likely
3 Jigawa Possible
4 Benue Possible
5 Kogi Likely
6 Niger Likely
7 Kwara Possible
8 Plateau Possible
9 FCT Possible

Note: Though it was not explicitly stated, a closer look at the report indicates that states where Tinubu’s chances are rated “likely” are those where he is most likely to win because they are under the APC’s control.

Most of the states where his chances are rated “possible” are those under the control of the opposition PDP.

The report also listed the states I where Atiku must secure 60% and 40% wins to emerge as Nigeria’s number one citizen in 2023.

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