Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, areport by Thisday has analysed the chances of the top three candidates in the poll: Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Bola Tinubu of the APC and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
About 177 days away from the polls, the report noted that the current standing of the major presidential candidates and their parties, based on the assessment of public opinion, is still too close to call, even though campaigns are yet to officially begin.
For Atiku to emerge the winner of the 2023 presidential election, the report listed the states he must win and predicted his chances of securing victory in such states.
The table below shows the report’s projection:
Atiku’s pathway to Aso Rock: States he must win over 60%
| States Atiku Must Win Over 60% | Comment (prediction) | |
| 1 | Adamawa | Likely |
| 2 | Taraba | Likely |
| 3 | Bauchi | Possible |
| 4 | Benue | Possible |
| 5 | Plateau | Possible |
| 6 | Sokoto | Likely |
| 7 | Jigawa | Possible |
| 8 | Katsina | Likely |
| 9 | Kebbi | Possible |
| 10 | Delta | Likely |
| 11 | Edo | Likely |
| 12 | Akwa Ibom | Likely |
| 13 | Bayelsa | Likely |
| 14 | Kaduna | Possible |
Atiku’s pathway to Aso Rock: States he must win over 40%
| States Atiku Must Win Over 40% | Comment (prediction) | |
| 1 | Lagos | Possible |
| 2 | Ogun | Possible |
| 3 | Osun | Likely |
| 4 | Oyo | Likely |
| 5 | Kano | Possible |
| 6 | Rivers | Possible |
| 7 | Cross River | Possible |
| 8 | Kogi | Possible |
| 9 | Kwara | Possible |
| 10 | Nasarawa | Possible |
| 11 | Niger | Possible |
| 12 | FCT | Likely |
Note: Though it was not stated in the report,
